Swell Forecast & Schedule

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Surf Synopsis
Today (Thursday) we still have some of that NW swell along the California coast, but this is on the way out. Size will back down further Friday. A light NW/SW combo is due this weekend, with light SW lingering for much of next week. NW swell builds slightly early next week. Condition-wise: slight precipitation chances in the forecast; tide will soon swing radically; wind looking moderate for the near term, although we may see change early next week.

Currently, periods are primarily running 13 seconds from 300° and 13 seconds from 200°.

In SoCal, most west facing breaks are seeing chest to at times head high sets with a few pluses now and again at standouts. OC is once again dealing with island blockage. South facing breaks are mostly waist to chest high max.

Wind Outlook
Winds at 5:00 this morning were calm most everywhere. Gradients remain relaxed despite a low sitting to our south. With the high weakening, this low just isn't interacting much with the high; hence, near neutral gradients for somewhat stagnant winds. We may see some southerly winds pick up throughout the morning though from 5-8 mph, but onshores this afternoon should remain below 12 mph. Friday looks similar. Troughing from the north moves in over the weekend as the low to the south moves out of the area. This should provide light and variables in the AM with afternoon onshores reaching 7-12 mph. This trend should last through Sunday. Models then diverge on the first part of next week: The trough coming in this weekend is expected to pinch off a low that would dive southward toward our area, but one version of the models shows the low being located a bit more to the east than other models do. This would result in an inside slider, which would kick up some northerly winds, possibly NNE for SoCal. If this low though takes a more westerly trajectory then we'd have more of an onshore (not offshore) scenario. With the models in disagreement this morning, it's just too early to tell...more details in my Sunday report...

Weather Outlook
The weird weather pattern continues. The low/trough to our south could still bring in tropical moisture today, putting slight rain chances in all areas over the next 48 hours; however, with the trough coming up from the south, the best chance for any rain would be south of LA. Best chances are over the mountains and higher elevations as the orographic lift enhancement would heighten the chances of rain there. Still, near the cosat, a 20% chance remains -- once again, mostly south of LA. The low weakens Friday as the recent heatwave high continues to move eastward and a trough from the north bears down on the region. Look for temps to reach only the low 70s today along the coast -- slightly cooler Friday. The weekend should see the effects of the incoming northerly trough with the usual AM marine layer and temps cooling to the high 60s to maybe 70° along the coast. Monday looks similar as well. Tuesday onward though is all dependent on that possible inside-slider-low mentioned in the wind section above. If this does turn into an inside slider and not a more westerly trajectory system, then temps would rise a bit Tuesday through Thursday of next week. With models in opposition with each other this morning though, as with the wind scenario, the weather forecast is a tough one right now...more details in my Sunday report...

Swell Forecast and Schedule
Synopsis
Still seeing some of the Aleutian NW today but this swell is on the way out. Most buoys are seeing just 13-second periods as the weaker, lagging periods are finally showing up behind the faster moving, longer period seas from this swell. Conditions look fair with wind glassy calm most everywhere. Water temps had a chance to warm up a tad from the heatwave and lack of northerly wind-induced upwelling: many beaches in OC/SD are reporting high 60s, with low to mid 60s around LA, and low 60s in VC/SB. Tide is pretty much a non-issue right now with slackwater highs and lows; however, we will start seeing a radical tidal swing early next week due to an approaching New Moon Thursday the 7th. Tides by the middle of the week will reach 6'+ in the early AM hours, which can shut down many spots, especially the reefs and points.

The Aleutian NW swell in the water now will fade Friday. A little something comes our way Saturday the 2nd from a high latitude system entering the Gulf of Alaska right now (which originated off the Kamchatka Peninsula and skirted south of the Bering Sea a few days ago). This will mix with a swath of swell being thrown our way from the New Zealand area, bringing some 210° SW. Moderate surf is expected from this combo this weekend.

The NW system entering the Gulf now though is expected to pump up more action once high in the Gulf. This, if all works out well over the next 48 hours, will throw more swell our way for Monday and Tuesday, mostly from 300°+. So far, models show this would only be chest max by Tuesday, but still an increase from what we'd see over the weekend.

The southern hemisphere has been seasonably lackluster as of late, but there has been enough recent activity to keep a flow of SW swell headed our way, mostly from around 200°. This should bring a steady flow of waist high or so SW swell for most of next week, with a slightly better chance for chest high surf around south facing breaks Tuesday the 5th.

Looking out on the longer range models, there isn't anything all too earth-shattering. More northern hemi NW swell makers are expected to form, but nothing all too impressive in size, and with high latitudes as well. Southern hemi long range models (120h+) show something breaking off Antarctica south of French Polynesia that might bring some moderate SW around the 13th, but it's too early to call that one today.

Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:

Friday the 1st looks smaller, perhaps waist to chest max at west facing breaks.

Saturday the 2nd will see our next NW swell and a touch of SW is due as well. All breaks are looking at waist+ surf.

Sunday the 3rd looks similar.

Monday the 4th should see a slight increase in NW swell as SW backs off a tad. West facing breaks are looking at waist+ waves while south facing breaks see knee to waist high waves.

Tuesday the 5th should see both a boost in NW and SW swells. All breaks are looking at chest high surf.

Wednesday the 6th looks a bit smaller as both swells fade, perhaps waist to chest most everywhere.

Thursday the 7th looks smaller so far.

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the line-up!

—Nathan